Wednesday, July 25, 2007

The Houses of Lavan, Part 1

It is Motzei Tisha B'Av, and the American investor is coming to terms with the fact that American Lending institutions over the last five years have given about 100 billion dollars in bad loans. Sub prime mortgages have been given with predatory purposes in mind to borrowers whose credit rating disqualified them from getting a normal mortgage with reasonable terms. I have been sitting on this evolving story for a long time, about six months. I was not sure that this was the sign that the House of Lavan the Aramean, the United States in our time, was about to lose a part of its prosperity to indicate to the Yakovs that live there that it was time to jump ship on his two year journey home. This Motzei Tisha B'Av I am becoming seriously convinced that this is the sign. The stock market seriously contracted today for the first time on news that these sub prime mortgages and the resulting depression like glut in the housing market will spill over to the rest of the American economy. It is an evolving situation whose catastrophic effect of seriously decreasing the net worth of every American home-owner will be felt several months if not up to one year and then some in the future. It is a slow enough effect to give the Yakovs of America, the American Jews, time to quickly wrap of their affairs and move on up to the Holy Land. The text of Genesis is very clear in telling us that Lavan's wealth as measured by his holding of real property, his cattle and his flock, was intricately tied to Yakov Avinu's presence as a hired hand in Lavan's house. When Yakov left Lavan's house with Lavans's daughters and their maidservants, he took with him a significant portion of Lavan's net worth. Lavan was not impoverished completely by Yakov's leaving, but the blessing upon his prosperity from HaShem because Yakov was in his midst was removed from him. Later we learn that the nation of Aram would continue to prosper from foreign trade with the nation of Israel, but the extra blessing of having Yakov Avinu in its midst would cease.

Since the U.S. is the archetype for the nation of Aram today, we should expect a similar drop in America's real prosperity that is not tied to foreign trade since this is the Year of Yakov, the Third year of Sukkot. See my article on the Cosmic Clock for a lengthy explanation of this. Therefore, we would expect a falloff of the net worth of those Americans for whom the white stripes on the American flag exist. This economic earthquake could not affect the business climate in America in the short term because Lavan in particular and Aram in general continued to prosper from trading with Yakov and his descendants. Therefore we cannot expect immediate declines in durable goods orders, the strength of the service economy, and of course, the stock market, but we could expect a long term corrosive effect to be set in motion. This is so because the number one real asset that Americans have is their homes. Real estate today is the repository of real wealth in the way that heads of sheep, goats, and cattle were the repository of real wealth in the ancient world.

A discussion about why this is finally rearing its head on Tisha B'Av as a catastrophic weight on future American prosperity will bli neder be discussed later this week in a second installment of And Yakov Traveled on to Sukkot, Part 2. May we see the geulah shlaimah hurriedly in our day.

14 Comments:

Blogger Hershel said...

You are so on the track! This brings into focus the statement by Zecharia 14:13 that all the nations will be required to observe Sukkos. Why Sukkos, of all Yomim-Tovim? “Housing" seems to be the key. This will be a lesson that the nations will fail… Hmmm….

7/25/2007 6:30 PM  
Blogger Rachel Tzipporah said...

I went through your Cosmic Clock post - amazing. I dont quite understand how you count the 49 days to Shavuot (490 years) and the 40 days from there to 17th Tammuz (last 40 yrs of that 490 years) at the same time - meaning they cross over - but the explanation of the War years is too perfect so Im assuming it is correct.

If 2000/5760 was the equivalent of Yom Kippur, then 2005/5765 was the first day of Sukkot. This year included the decimation of Gush Katif, resulting in families living literally in shacks and makeshift houses of sorts. This makes sense in terms of Sukkot, but Sukkot is supposed to be joyous. If this is correct, Hoshana Rabbah (final judgement of the world) would be 2012 and Shemini Atzeret 2013.

Does this make sense? What do you think?

Also, how does this sync with the concept of the war of Gog UMagog, which we think also started at the same time at the end of 2000?

7/25/2007 6:38 PM  
Blogger Rachel Tzipporah said...

I went through your Cosmic Clock post - amazing. I dont quite understand how you count the 49 days to Shavuot (490 years) and the 40 days from there to 17th Tammuz (last 40 yrs of that 490 years) at the same time - meaning they cross over - but the explanation of the War years is too perfect so Im assuming it is correct.

If 2000/5760 was the equivalent of Yom Kippur, then 2005/5765 was the first day of Sukkot. This year included the decimation of Gush Katif, resulting in families living literally in shacks and makeshift houses of sorts. This makes sense in terms of Sukkot, but Sukkot is supposed to be joyous. If this is correct, Hoshana Rabbah (final judgement of the world) would be 2012 and Shemini Atzeret 2013.

Does this make sense? What do you think?

Also, how does this sync with the concept of the war of Gog UMagog, which we think also started at the same time at the end of 2000?

7/25/2007 6:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

dov

what do you make of the fact that the uk is currently experiencing the worse floods for 60 years - the last time they had floods of this magnitude was 1947 - and we all know what happened in that year, and what role the UK played in trying to prevent the nascent state of israel from coming into being.

do you think 'tony' has already tried to do the deal to 'disengage' the west bank, G-d forbid - and do you think it may actually go ahead?

i can't believe it will - but i know that's we thought the first time round with GK, and we were wrong

7/26/2007 10:20 AM  
Blogger LEOR said...

Any comments on the two "5769 Guaranteed Geula" posts at http://mysticalpaths.blogspot.com/ ??

7/26/2007 5:50 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

BS"D

Chicken Little....redux.

RMY

7/26/2007 8:39 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dov,

I will postpone my comments until I read the full piece. However, I submit the following, which seems improbably symmetrical. It comes from Guysen International News a/k/a Guysen Israel News. I do not have the actual link:

“Tony Blair wants to make Armon Hanatsiv his secondary residence in Jerusalem. According t the Sunday Times, the Quartet's new Middle East envoy is determined to transform the former palace of the British High Commission into his personal residence, for his frequent trips to the region. This prestigious location is home to the offices of the UN and offers an unsurpassed view of the Old City of Jerusalem, the Dead Sea and the Judean Desert. “

HaSefaradi

7/26/2007 8:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that the day C. Rice came out with her statement about the "occupied territories" is no less significant a connection. All you say is true.

We made aliyah one year ago, we were very aware of the coming difficulties, though we owned no property.

Like pre-ww2 Germany, there are many, many blinded by the ease and comfort of the life in the US. Their refusal to see that Lavan is not our friend, is detrimental to them and they won't open their eyes. They simply refuse.

I'd also like to add that we just asked fam. in the US for a loan and were refused. There are many investors refusing due to the changes in economy.

As of this writing the DOW has FALLEN 400 points... it's happening faster than you thought.

7/26/2007 10:05 PM  
Blogger גילוי said...

Leor,

The statement regarding 5769 is factually incorrect, no matter how many times it is repeated.

http://keitzmeguleh.blogspot.com/

7/27/2007 12:23 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wall Street numbers are way inflated due to high inflation that the Bush Admin has been encouraging. So its doing a correction. More than likely, the plunge protection team will step in from the federal reserve and flood the market with more dollars, increasing inflation. All to stay the market to keep the illusion that the economy is fine. It takes more dollars to buy just groceries, I buy less for that reason. So many people here have so much they are very cold and selfish, as far as helping their country men who are in need and not as fortunate as them. Their comfort and not being inconvenenced is all that counts to them. In America there is a population of people that have never been without. How will my country cope if we have a large depression and dollar collapse? I shudder cause I can only imagine.

7/27/2007 1:09 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Quoting a poster on Tzvi Fishman's blog FOR the oleh who expects a free ride from his relative>>>

"AND I WILL GATHER YOU FROM THE FARTHEST REACHES ODF THE HEAVENS"

"As for your laments regarding lack of aliyah from North America, I will again repeat that most Jews are not eager to commit the sin of suicide just because you claim suicide to be a mizvah. You will see increased aliyah when you fight for your lives, your country and the sanctification of the name of the Lord by the same means, methods and with the same resolve as Hamas and Hezbollah fight for their lives, nation and the sanctification of Satan. Until the Jews take up arms against Israel, no sane Jew should make aliyah."

7/27/2007 1:46 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Our loan request was to build our business, not to live... Baruch Hashem, we are fine.

Aliyah is not suicide. It's a crime to say that Jews choosing to live in Israel are killing themselves.

This is American complacency, excuse searching to justify their inaction and sooth their guilt. What nonsense.

There are a great many former US residents who would have asked for buisness loans from family even in the US. I know plent of grandparents paying for grandchildren's tuition in the US.

Please. Excuses and rationalizations only show lack of belief that Hashem runs this world- There are no coincidences.

7/27/2007 6:01 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous entrepreneur above:

Is there an email address where I might contact you? I am interested in your perspective on business EY--especially as olim.

yasher koach,

HaSefaradi

7/29/2007 7:59 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with all the pro-Israel commenting. As I view the economy in America, 9/11 was definitely the wake-up call, and the apex of the Jewish contribution to the US was sometime before that, and this is a sign of the demise of this galus.

Eretz Yisrael needs a cleansing, to rid it of the Erev Rav and their destructive ways. I don't think the emesdike Jews will be in trouble, and as we have been told so many time in many ways, Eretz Yisrael is the safest place in the world.

The flooding and earth-quaking around the globe was also prophecized, it just hasn't hit American YET.

I am personally in the process of emigrating to our Holy Land of our Ancestors, and only hope I get there before our Moshiach reveals himself.

Thank you Dov, and stay on the pulsebeat.

7/29/2007 7:32 PM  

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