Let us All Have a Good Shabbat and a Freilichin Chanukah
I really was not planning on posting before Shabbat, and since the first three Aliyot of Parshat VaYeishev are a nightmare on the lack of common decency that our forebears. the Shvatim, had with each other and against Yosef in particular, I could not see anything good coming out of those days that were associated with those three Aliyot, especially Aliyot 2 and 3 of this weeks parsha. Because events of this week have truly corresponded to the 2nd thesis, that the Aliyot of the parsha are associated with the Wednesday before Shabbat until the Tuesday after that Shabbat. This past Tuesday, Esav went off the cliff as I demonstrated in the previous post. It happened on Tuesday because of one word, Magdi'el that is mentioned in the 7th Aliyah of VaYishlach. And all of our Sages of the Ages (Chazal) are in agreement that Magdi'el is Rome. So the goat called Esav went off the Italian cliff called Vesuvius because the name Magdi'el seems to have tied the fate of Rome with the fourth Aliyah when Esav returns to Se'ir the mountain of the male goat. So the goat is now in midair and is still falling as I write this. Now there have been a flurry of financial stories from Kyle Bass and several other hedge fund gurus that a collapse of the European banking system is imminent while no one in their right mind is giving a date for the collapse of the European banking system in order to actually cause the panic rather than to just report on it. That is responsible, and even if Kyle Bass says that a collapse might be months away, he says it because if he said "days away", he himself would be blamed for initiating full scale panic.
Yet, Tyler Durden takes no prisoners. His penchant for the Truth in matters financial is such a breath of fresh air. And he is hilarious. Here is one of his zerohedge.com posts in its entirety:
Whereas previously we had heard extensive horror stories about banks being told to prepare for the end of the world in case the European summit (the latest and greatest one from last Friday which was supposed to find a cure for cancer among other things) failed, and even went so far as to read about preparations for trading in the drachma on a when issued basis, once the summit passed (and it was clear that media posturing would do nothing to fix what has already been a failure and it would be best to remove the threats of "reality" from the public's attention) all such "end of the world" speculation promptly disappeared - after all why remind people that things are now worse than ever. Until today. According to the Australian Finance Review (link - subscription required), banks down under "have been given 1 week by regulators to stress test how they would handle a spike in joblessness, plunge in home prices spurred by EU debt crisis." Aka a European "Meltdown." And since we don't have immediate access to the article, we leave it to Bloomberg First Word to describe for us what the article says:
- Australian Prudential Regulation Authority envision worst-case scenario of 12% unemployment, 30% drop in house prices, 40% fall in commercial property values, AFR says
- Banks will assume that write-offs, other mitigation measures are unavailable; later stress tests might allow for such steps, AFR says
- Australia’s banks have A$87.2b of exposure to Europe, or 2.7% of assets, with A$74.6b of it mostly tied to bank borrowers in France, Germany, Netherlands, AFR says, citing RBA statistics
Why is this notable? Because unlike before, when media reports were really a propaganda ploy to get European politicians to collaborate (what has now proven to be an impossible task), and nothing but a rhetorical device, this time around, the warning is for real. And, more importantly, we have a sense of urgency, courtesy of the 1 week deadline: the question then is is it really that bad, and does Europe truly have a little over a week for global banks to prepare for the inevitable fall out?
Lastly, how long until our own prudent leaders decide it may be time to push the Stress Test scheduled for next year forward, just in case the "unthinkable" does happen, and US banks end up getting stampeded even as the rest of the world is already prepared for a worst case scenario?
We are confident Tim Geithner will get right back to us asap on all of these open items.
Well I must hand it to the Aussies. When they want to prepare, they actually tell their own citizens that perhaps they should do whatever means to prepare too. I wonder if Obuzzard will also give Americans the same time space to prepare in the ways that they should have been preparing for the last several months anyway. Now next week is Chanukah, and in the first Aliyah of MiKeitz which corresponds to the first day of Chanukah in the Wednesday through Tuesday system, Yosef gets his "Get out of Jail Free" card when Paro needs a dream interpreter. That first Aliyah actually took place on Rosh HaShana so many years ago, but it always appears during the week of Chanukah. In the third Aliyah of MiKeitz, Yosef is appointed as the vice-king by Paro and becomes 2nd to Paro and ultimately becomes a lifeline of food to the entire world. So the horrible events of the first three Aliyot of VaYeishev this week, within one week, are transformed into three Aliyot days of triumph for Yosef HaTzaddik. So quickly the world can change in one week. And may the real Mashiach ben Yosef, who may very well at this time, be sitting in an American prison with a Yud Key Vav in his first name as opposed to his last name, get his "Get Out of Jail Free" card during those first three days of Chanukah. May HaShem make it so. Amen.
Urgent update: It takes a Kyle Bass, the most credible hedge fund manager in the world, based in Dallas to set it all straight for all of us:
The exact day that it pops for good is obviously unknown. But is is imminent. So please do not let your guard down, and stay just as prepared no matter what laughers and scoffers say.